The Ozone Transport Commission (“OTC”) held its fall meeting in Baltimore, Maryland on November 5, 2009. After a brief introduction by Sherri Wilson, Tad Aburn (Md) started with a short presentation on the ambient ozone data that is being collected in the OTC, noting the existence of the large upper level reservoir of ozone above the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast areas during the morning hours on bad ozone days. The reservoir historically contained measured levels of more than 100 ppb ozone even while ground levels were in the 60 ppb range. However, once the diurnal inversion breaks up, the reservoir mixes to ground level causing ozone exceedances. Aburn stated that the NOx SIP Call worked, because the reservoir used to contain levels of 100 ppb or more and now is usually in the 70 ppb range. However, on any given day, the transport portion of ambient ozone can be at least 50% of ground level measurements in the Ozone Transport Region (“OTR”). Aburn referred to the 17-state letter (on behalf of OTC and LADCO) to U.S. EPA that contains sweeping recommendations to help deal with transport issues. The OTC believes that it needs 500,000 tons of additional NOx reductions within the OTR in order to reach attainment. The OTC states are planning based on a 2017 attainment date for moderate ozone nonattainment areas so controls must be in place by 2014. Aburn concluded by saying that ozone and PM2.5 levels have never been lower, but tougher ozone and particulate matter (“PM2.5”) standards are on the horizon so more work is ahead.
U.S. EPA Assistant Administrator, Gina McCarthy, spoke on behalf of the Obama administration about U.S. EPA’s priorities for Ozone and other regional air pollutants. For more information about her speech, please see the blog article “U.S. EPA Assistant Administrator Gina McCarthy Speaks Out.”
Leah Weiss and Gary Kleiman, both of NESCAUM, presented an integrated approach to criteria pollutants, mercury and greenhouse gases (“GHGs”). Weiss opened the presentation noting that NESCAUM has developed an integrated multi-pollutant analysis tool and has been working with New York, Massachusetts, and Maryland to test it. The rationale for this tool is that single pollutant strategies are inconsistent and that multi-pollutant strategies are more cost effective and efficient.
NESCAUM believes that strategies should address SO2, NOx, CO2, PM, and Hg. To do so will require changing the planning paradigm by looking at longer term planning horizons. This is due to the fact energy and climate programs work better under longer term cycles, while the air quality agenda requires some short term schedules.
Kleiman then described the Multi-Pollutant Policy Analysis Framework (MPAF). The centerpiece is a MARKAL model tailored for the Northeast to evaluate energy systems. Outputs include expenditures and emissions data that serve as input to CMAQ and a 12 state REMI model.
Kleiman described the MARKAL model inputs and outputs. He showed an example using transportation policy, analyzing the sensitivity to an electric vehicle mandate. The model produced output showing the numbers of vehicles in each category that the policy affected and also allowed an analysis of the impact on the power sector from use of the additional electric vehicles, including impact on air emissions.
Kleiman said that the tool is valuable because, it allows monetized mortality and morbidity calculations for use in policy analysis. Advantages include being quick to run, inexpensive to use, transparent to review, detailed enough to assess a wide range of climate and air quality strategies, outputs can be linked to other models, is a multi-pollutant model, shows trade-offs, and is an energy model. Limitations include being unable to address consumer behaviors.
Weiss closed saying NESCAUM is recommending use of this model to inform air, climate, and energy policies. NESCAUM is looking for opportunities to work with EPA using the model. Aburn added that the model needs to be able to incorporate environmental justice considerations.
Barbara Kwetz, Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (“MA DEP”), addressed OTC’s modeling & inventory. Kwetz showed slides of ambient ozone measurements in the OTC. The results were optimistic, there was cleaner air in 2009 than in prior years. Only two sites in the OTC had values in excess of the 1997 standard. There were exceedances of the 75 ppb standard throughout the corridor and in western Pennsylvania. Kwetz noted that meteorology played a part in this result because; it was not conducive to formation of ozone in 2009. The economic downturn also impacted the data. The 2009 data continues a downward trend in ambient levels of ozone. Kwetz showed a slide and a statistical analysis that leads her to believe that the downard trend is not just based on weather and the economy, however, noting that the statistical analysis leads to a conclusion that controls are working. Kwetz did note that a new 70 or 65 ppb standard will be problematic based on these data.
Kwetz next described inventory plans and said that stakeholders are now reviewing the 2007 point source inventory. She showed a slide depicting the top 125 NOx sources in the OTC and Virginia as well as an emissions trend slide showing that more than half of the sources had reduced NOx emissions between 2007 and 2009.
Area sources are becoming a significant sector of the inventory and MARAMA has made a number of improvements in the OTC area source inventory. The U.S. EPA draft 2008 inventory is due out soon. Temporal allocations are being included to reflect variability in emissions that affect air quality on a seasonal, daily, and hourly basis. U.S. EPA is requiring use of the new MOVES model for mobile sources but, until the new model can be used, prior data will be used. The MOVES model continues to be problematic and, even though required by U.S. EPA, is thus far not able to be used.
Stakeholder comments on the point source inventory were due November 3. The schedule going forward is that in November 2009 the contractor will finalize the 2007 inventory and, by December 2009, U.S. EPA will finalize the MOVES model. Key inventory issues include U.S. EPA approval of alternative methods for forecasting EGU emissions.
The modeling platform is CMAQ, using update BEIS for biogenics, updated carbon bond chemistry, 2002 MM5 data, 2005 emissions, and the SMOKE preprocessor. Upgrades to the new platform result in all data points still being predicted to be less than 75 ppb, as was the case using the old platform. This is a screening model and is not SIP quality modeling and Kwetz acknowledged that point. Additional upgrades, including biogenics based on MEGAN, a new base year of 2007, temporalized EGU emissions from EPA/CAMD, and use of MOVES are planned. Kwetz next described the modeling preformed to analyze HEDD. The path forward includes projecting the impact of HEDD on air quality.
Chris Salmi made an added presentation describing a New Jersey screening model analysis. Salmi described several scenarios involving electric generating units (“EGU”) controls, including one with EGU NOx emission at 0.10 lbs/MMBtu throughout the OTR. Salmi stated that the modeled rate was 0.07 lbs/MMBtu during his presentation, but later appeared to say that it was 0.1 lbs/MMBtu in response to a question so it was not clear which rate was actually modeled. While there were no monitors projected to exceed 85 ppb, benefits from EGU controls and industrial, commercial and institutional (“ICI”) boilers appeared to amount to a reduction of no more than 6 or 7 ppb at any location. Salmi closed with the caveats that this analysis was performed using existing models, that it used only one month of emissions data, that HEDD was not included, and that the mobile model was MOBILE6.
When asked by a stakeholder whether Salmi had performed a similar analysis using a NOx limit of 0.15 lbs/MMBtu as recommended by the OTC and LADCO, Salmi said that he had not.
Anna Garcia, Executive Director, OTC, described OTC accomplishments including the OTC/LADCO cooperative project culminating in the 17 state letter to the U.S. EPA mentioned previously. That activity resulted from the vacatur of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (“CAIR”). She characterized the effort as showing that a national program focused only on EGUs will not be enough so that a broader set of sectors must be analyzed. The project included technical work that recognized regional differences on “certain issues,” and calls for reductions in all sectors, large point sources, mobile sources, and area sources, to meet NAAQS. The collaborative letter called for a timely and robust Federal program that requires substantial regional emissions reductions from mobile sources, area sources, and large point sources.
The EGU point source strategy calls for federally enforceable CAIR Phase I controls, optimizing existing NOx and SO2 controls, federally enforceable low cost NOx controls, and statewide emissions caps (with no allowance bank) based on rates not to exceed 0.11 lbs/MMBtu NOx and .25 lbs/MMBtu SO2. The Non-EGU strategy is to identify priority categories and evaluate control options, evaluate potential for reductions from ICI boilers, new engine standards for mobile sources, and area source controls.
Garcia then said that the OTC recommends a hybrid approach calling for earlier statewide emissions caps (prior to 2017), early regional trading (no later than 2014), and consideration of strategies for other pollutants that are on the way, e.g., greenhouse gasses. Garcia also explained OTC recommendations on state lead planning for attainment, noting that U.S. EPA needs to ensure that models portray all types of transport accurately. Scott Mathias (EPA OAQPS) noted that EPA had received all of the recommendations, appreciates the work, and is considering the recommendations.
Ali Mirzakhalili, DNREC & Chris Salmi, NJDEP jointly presented the SIP planning timeline. Mirzakhalili (MD) provided an update on Stationary & Area Source (SAS) Committee activities. The SAS Committee is analyzing costs of various control strategies for a number of pollutants including VOCs, NOx, and SO2.
Mirzakhalili then reported on the Committee measurement development process, including the work presented in September at the OTC meeting in Niagara Falls, New York, adding that the Committee had received many comments during the comment period and was also offering the opportunity for additional comments today. Mirzakhalili summarized the comments to date, including those from UARG, MOG, and the unions on EGUs and comments from others regarding other sectors.
Next steps include source sector discussions, calls with stakeholders, finalizing screening model inputs and which measures to include, holding a stakeholder meeting in the spring of 2010, and evaluating oil and gas EGU performance standards. Gene Trisko on behalf of the United Mine Workers of America, AFL-CIO, commented that there is a consent order on the utility Hazardous Air Pollutant (“HAP”) rule as well as other control measures under U.S. EPA action and suggested that the SAS Committee consider all of the recent U.S. EPA initiatives in its deliberations.
Chris Salmi (NJ) provided an update on OTC Mobile Source Committee activities, including lightering, non-road idling, and sea ports, as well as other initiatives including catalyst replacement. Next steps include recommendations for screening model analysis for lightering, idling programs, and sea port controls, and developing a program outline for catalyst replacement. A white paper will be developed for all strategies much like the SAS Committee white paper and posted for comment.
With regard to formal motions, the Commission approved a resolution updating the coatings model rule resolving that “the OTC member states will pursue as necessary and appropriate state-specific rulemakings to update state rules in accordance with the OTC Model Rule for Motor Vehicles and Mobile Equipment Non-Assembly Line coatings Operations.
The Commission approved a charge to Committees to “jointly develop” a Memorandum of Understanding regarding the adoption of new local measures by the OTC states based on the analysis of potential control options currently underway by the Committees for attainment of the ozone NAAQS. The MOU is to be available for consideration by the Commission at its June 2010 meeting tentatively scheduled to be June 3 in Boston, Massachusetts.
The Commission approved a Statement on National Measures urging U.S. EPA to “promulgate Federal regulations based on successful regional and local control strategies and controls implemented by the OTC states.” Numerous sectors including large non-EGU point sources, consumer and commercial products, cement kilns, stationary reciprocating combustion engines and distributed generation, asphalt manufacturing and paving, glass manufacturing, mobile equipment repair and refinishing, and solvent cleaning operations should be subject to the recommended national standards. Finally, The Commission approved a statement requesting U.S. EPA to finalize the MOVES model for mobile sources.
This article was authored by Laura G. Swingle, Jackson Kelly PLLC. For more information on the author see here.